Updates / Notes

Interestingly, the model predicted the two “almost-upsets” in the Big 10. Penn State was given a 58% chance to beat Indiana and Iowa was given a 57% chance to beat Oregon (referencing base model percentages).

Also, note how few teams are in the upper left and bottom right quadrants of the graph. This visually demonstrates the lack of upsets this week.

Week 11 Statistics

Home/Away Model:

1. Base Version Record: 39-12
2. Base Version Accuracy: 76.47%
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3. Slimmed Version Record: 39-12
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 76.47%
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5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions: 49-2
6. Disagreement Percentage: 3.92%

Neutral Site Model:

N/A; no neutrals

Notable Predictions

N/A due to a general lack of upsets

Most Unlikely Outcomes

Memphis over Tulane (15.90% base, 14.92% slimmed)
Cal over #15 Louisville (11.82% base, 9.85% slimmed)
Sam Houston State over Oregon State (8.69% base, 6.40% slimmed)
Wisconsin over #23 Washington (19.52% base, 17.79% slimmed)

Biggest Nailbiters

Under common sense, this section would include the Oregon-Iowa and Indiana-Penn State games. However, because the model actually predicted Iowa and Penn State to win, these games don’t fall under this category. There were no nailbiters this week, under the criteria of a <10 point win paired with a win probability >80%.

Running Totals

Home/Away Model:

1. Base Version Record: 258-106
2. Base Version Accuracy: 70.88%
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3. Slimmed Version Record: 255-110
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 69.86%
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5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions: 350-14
6. Disagreement Percentage: 3.85%

Neutral Site Model:

1. Base Version Record: 3-1
2. Base Version Accuracy: 75.00%
   –
3. Slimmed Version Record: 4-0
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 100.00%
   –
5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions:3-1
6. Disagreement Percentage: 75.00%

Combined:

1. Base Version Record: 261-107
2. Base Version Accuracy: 70.92%
   –
3. Slimmed Version Record: 259-110
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 70.19%
   –
5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions: 352-15
6. Disagreement Percentage: 4.09%

Full Breakdown of Results

Given that the Personal Plan in WordPress doesn’t allow for plugins to be installed, I can’t embed data tables into these pages without running into a ton of formatting issues.

To see the full breakdown of results, please follow the Google Drive link to the Excel document below:

Full Results