Updates / Notes

I haven’t been posting predictions/results due to what was an extremely busy end to November. Additionally, I haven’t been amending my predictions posts with results partly because of time, and partly because I plan to develop and test a few new models in the offseason, so I’m currently planning on discarding this one (or at best, keeping it as a baseline model). This is also why I haven’t been updating my running totals; I feel I’ve collected enough data on this model as is.

Lastly, I am also working on developing a website that is more suited to my needs than the blog style that WordPress offers.

All of that being said, I’ll continue to release predictions for each round of the playoff because I find them entertaining to compare to what actually happens on the field.

Running Totals (complete)

Home/Away Model:

1. Base Version Record: 258-106
2. Base Version Accuracy: 70.88%
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3. Slimmed Version Record: 255-110
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 69.86%
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5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions: 350-14
6. Disagreement Percentage: 3.85%

Neutral Site Model:

1. Base Version Record: 3-1
2. Base Version Accuracy: 75.00%
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3. Slimmed Version Record: 4-0
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 100.00%
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5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions:3-1
6. Disagreement Percentage: 75.00%

Combined:

1. Base Version Record: 261-107
2. Base Version Accuracy: 70.92%
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3. Slimmed Version Record: 259-110
4. Slimmed Version Accuracy: 70.19%
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5. Agree-Disagree Between Versions: 352-15
6. Disagreement Percentage: 4.09%

Full Breakdown of Predictions

Given that the Personal Plan in WordPress doesn’t allow for plugins to be installed, I can’t embed data tables into these pages without running into a ton of formatting issues.

To see the full breakdown of predictions, please follow the Google Drive link to the Excel document below:

Bowl Game Predictions
Playoff Round 1 Predictions