Key Week 5 Statistics
- Base Model Record: 37-12
- Base Model Accuracy: 75.51%
– - Slimmed Model Record: 35-15
- Slimmed Model Accuracy: 70.00%
– - Agree-Disagree Between Models: 46-3
- Disagreement Percentage: 6.12%
Notable Predictions
Virginia over #8 Florida State (65.98% base, 72.01% slimmed)
#13 Ole Miss over #4 LSU (60.70% base, 57.89% slimmed)
#17 Alabama over #5 Georgia (54.52% base, 57.28% slimmed)
Base Model Full Breakdown
Week 5 (51 Games)
| Home | Away | Win Prob. | Score | Predicted | Actual | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | Army | 47.09% | 28-6 | Army | East Carolina | FALSE |
| Virginia | Florida State | 65.98% | 46-38 | Virginia | Virginia | TRUE |
| Arizona State | TCU | 52.21% | 27-24 | Arizona State | Arizona State | TRUE |
| Oregon State | Houston | 5.84% | 24-27 | Houston | Houston | TRUE |
| Kansas State | UCF | 12.50% | 34-20 | UCF | Kansas State | FALSE |
| Kansas | Cincinnati | 93.35% | 34-37 | Kansas | Cincinnati | FALSE |
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | 46.45% | 27-34 | Louisville | Louisville | TRUE |
| Syracuse | Duke | 71.00% | 3-38 | Syracuse | Duke | FALSE |
| Minnesota | Rutgers | 30.81% | 31-28 | Rutgers | Minnesota | FALSE |
| Wake Forest | Georgia Tech | 27.08% | 29-30 | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | TRUE |
| Illinois | USC | 74.24% | 34-32 | Illinois | Illinois | TRUE |
| Arkansas | Notre Dame | NA | 13-56 | null | Notre Dame | null |
| North Texas | South Alabama | 94.50% | 36-22 | North Texas | North Texas | TRUE |
| Ohio | Bowling Green | 82.94% | 35-20 | Ohio | Ohio | TRUE |
| Vanderbilt | Utah State | 91.47% | 55-35 | Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | TRUE |
| Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 66.53% | 24-13 | Central Michigan | Central Michigan | TRUE |
| James Madison | Georgia Southern | 87.04% | 35-10 | James Madison | James Madison | TRUE |
| UL Monroe | Arkansas State | 20.21% | 28-16 | Arkansas State | UL Monroe | FALSE |
| Northern Illinois | San Diego State | 68.18% | 3-6 | Northern Illinois | San Diego State | FALSE |
| Ole Miss | LSU | 60.70% | 24-19 | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | TRUE |
| Washington | Ohio State | 37.49% | 6-24 | Ohio State | Ohio State | TRUE |
| Oklahoma State | Baylor | 35.87% | 27-45 | Baylor | Baylor | TRUE |
| Navy | Rice | 96.16% | 21-13 | Navy | Navy | TRUE |
| Texas A&M | Auburn | 73.45% | 16-10 | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | TRUE |
| Boston College | California | 43.08% | 24-28 | California | California | TRUE |
| Northwestern | UCLA | NA | 17-14 | null | Northwestern | null |
| West Virginia | Utah | 30.61% | 14-48 | Utah | Utah | TRUE |
| Iowa | Indiana | 71.57% | 15-20 | Iowa | Indiana | FALSE |
| Buffalo | UConn | 43.63% | 17-20 | UConn | UConn | TRUE |
| Toledo | Akron | 96.29% | 45-3 | Toledo | Toledo | TRUE |
| New Mexico | New Mexico State | 80.34% | 38-20 | New Mexico | New Mexico | TRUE |
| Tulsa | Tulane | 31.97% | 14-31 | Tulane | Tulane | TRUE |
| Air Force | Hawai’i | 55.85% | 35-44 | Air Force | Hawai’i | FALSE |
| Mississippi State | Tennessee | 16.43% | 34-41 | Tennessee | Tennessee | TRUE |
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | 65.59% | 24-16 | Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State | TRUE |
| Old Dominion | Liberty | 69.19% | 21-7 | Old Dominion | Old Dominion | TRUE |
| Southern Miss | Jacksonville State | 70.48% | 42-25 | Southern Miss | Southern Miss | TRUE |
| Missouri State | Western Kentucky | 37.80% | 22-27 | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | TRUE |
| Iowa State | Arizona | 85.62% | 39-14 | Iowa State | Iowa State | TRUE |
| Florida Atlantic | Memphis | 13.67% | 26-55 | Memphis | Memphis | TRUE |
| NC State | Virginia Tech | 83.59% | 21-23 | NC State | Virginia Tech | FALSE |
| Penn State | Oregon | 88.72% | 24-30 | Penn State | Oregon | FALSE |
| Colorado State | Washington State | 25.11% | 3-20 | Washington State | Washington State | TRUE |
| Boise State | App State | 88.22% | 47-14 | Boise State | Boise State | TRUE |
| Georgia | Alabama | 45.48% | 21-24 | Alabama | Alabama | TRUE |
| Stanford | San Jose State | 86.60% | 30-29 | Stanford | Stanford | TRUE |
| Missouri | Massachusetts | 99.94% | 42-6 | Missouri | Missouri | TRUE |
| South Carolina | Kentucky | 56.24% | 35-13 | South Carolina | South Carolina | TRUE |
| Louisiana | Marshall | 58.23% | 54-51 | Louisiana | Louisiana | TRUE |
| UTEP | Louisiana Tech | 45.52% | 11-30 | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | TRUE |
| Colorado | BYU | 82.58% | 21-24 | Colorado | BYU | FALSE |
Slimmed Model Full Breakdown
Week 5 (51 Games)
| Home | Away | Win Prob. | Score | Predicted | Actual | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | Army | 49.19% | 28-6 | Army | East Carolina | FALSE |
| Virginia | Florida State | 72.01% | 46-38 | Virginia | Virginia | TRUE |
| Arizona State | TCU | 48.99% | 27-24 | TCU | Arizona State | FALSE |
| Oregon State | Houston | 8.09% | 24-27 | Houston | Houston | TRUE |
| Kansas State | UCF | 9.54% | 34-20 | UCF | Kansas State | FALSE |
| Kansas | Cincinnati | 91.63% | 34-37 | Kansas | Cincinnati | FALSE |
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | 64.63% | 27-34 | Pittsburgh | Louisville | FALSE |
| Syracuse | Duke | 61.88% | 3-38 | Syracuse | Duke | FALSE |
| Minnesota | Rutgers | 44.03% | 31-28 | Rutgers | Minnesota | FALSE |
| Wake Forest | Georgia Tech | 30.98% | 29-30 | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | TRUE |
| Illinois | USC | 58.62% | 34-32 | Illinois | Illinois | TRUE |
| Arkansas | Notre Dame | 35.45% | 13-56 | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | TRUE |
| North Texas | South Alabama | 89.21% | 36-22 | North Texas | North Texas | TRUE |
| Ohio | Bowling Green | 83.47% | 35-20 | Ohio | Ohio | TRUE |
| Vanderbilt | Utah State | 91.36% | 55-35 | Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | TRUE |
| Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 65.54% | 24-13 | Central Michigan | Central Michigan | TRUE |
| James Madison | Georgia Southern | 90.01% | 35-10 | James Madison | James Madison | TRUE |
| UL Monroe | Arkansas State | 19.64% | 28-16 | Arkansas State | UL Monroe | FALSE |
| Northern Illinois | San Diego State | 65.84% | 3-6 | Northern Illinois | San Diego State | FALSE |
| Ole Miss | LSU | 57.89% | 24-19 | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | TRUE |
| Washington | Ohio State | 35.04% | 6-24 | Ohio State | Ohio State | TRUE |
| Oklahoma State | Baylor | 35.64% | 27-45 | Baylor | Baylor | TRUE |
| Navy | Rice | 96.23% | 21-13 | Navy | Navy | TRUE |
| Texas A&M | Auburn | 83.02% | 16-10 | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | TRUE |
| Boston College | California | 46.86% | 24-28 | California | California | TRUE |
| Northwestern | UCLA | NA | 17-14 | null | Northwestern | null |
| West Virginia | Utah | 22.51% | 14-48 | Utah | Utah | TRUE |
| Iowa | Indiana | 74.11% | 15-20 | Iowa | Indiana | FALSE |
| Buffalo | UConn | 36.57% | 17-20 | UConn | UConn | TRUE |
| Toledo | Akron | 97.98% | 45-3 | Toledo | Toledo | TRUE |
| New Mexico | New Mexico State | 61.89% | 38-20 | New Mexico | New Mexico | TRUE |
| Tulsa | Tulane | 27.12% | 14-31 | Tulane | Tulane | TRUE |
| Air Force | Hawai’i | 57.47% | 35-44 | Air Force | Hawai’i | FALSE |
| Mississippi State | Tennessee | 15.26% | 34-41 | Tennessee | Tennessee | TRUE |
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | 72.62% | 24-16 | Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State | TRUE |
| Old Dominion | Liberty | 49.85% | 21-7 | Liberty | Old Dominion | FALSE |
| Southern Miss | Jacksonville State | 68.55% | 42-25 | Southern Miss | Southern Miss | TRUE |
| Missouri State | Western Kentucky | 41.47% | 22-27 | Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | TRUE |
| Iowa State | Arizona | 86.40% | 39-14 | Iowa State | Iowa State | TRUE |
| Florida Atlantic | Memphis | 13.32% | 26-55 | Memphis | Memphis | TRUE |
| NC State | Virginia Tech | 83.15% | 21-23 | NC State | Virginia Tech | FALSE |
| Penn State | Oregon | 77.30% | 24-30 | Penn State | Oregon | FALSE |
| Colorado State | Washington State | 20.64% | 3-20 | Washington State | Washington State | TRUE |
| Boise State | App State | 94.12% | 47-14 | Boise State | Boise State | TRUE |
| Georgia | Alabama | 42.72% | 21-24 | Alabama | Alabama | TRUE |
| Stanford | San José State | 80.21% | 30-29 | Stanford | Stanford | TRUE |
| Missouri | Massachusetts | 99.94% | 42-6 | Missouri | Missouri | TRUE |
| South Carolina | Kentucky | 65.87% | 35-13 | South Carolina | South Carolina | TRUE |
| Louisiana | Marshall | 57.32% | 54-51 | Louisiana | Louisiana | TRUE |
| UTEP | Louisiana Tech | 46.55% | 11-30 | Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | TRUE |
| Colorado | BYU | 65.59% | 21-24 | Colorado | BYU | FALSE |
File
The Excel file below contains the full raw output from the model, along with formatted tabs for both the base and slimmed models.
Football through Data 
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